What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them by Ed Bagley

Georgia Tech was rated No. Instead, it rewards teams that do well against good opponents.

When you know that more than $700 million can be bet on one game–the Super Bowl–in only Las Vegas, then you understand that billions were bet illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the United States and in offshore sports books around the world.

1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre teams in the country the last several years, was rated No. 40 by Sagarin.

7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin College Football Ratings. The ratings are updated following each week’s games and published in USA Today on Wednesdays.

The first job for La Salle this year will be to score a touchdown, or any points, including a field goal or touchback. 31 after hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home opener.

La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus 28-0. For Sagarin ratings and more detailed information go to: www.usatoday.com

6) Temple (ranked No. The worst-rated AA school is the No. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3 home victory over Virginia.

2) Michigan State, another short end of the stick team for far too long, was rated No. Following its horrendous loss, Michigan ended up being ranked No. The win was the biggest upset in college football history as no AA team had ever beaten a ranked team.

USA Today, the largest circulation newspaper in the United States, is the nation’s daily newspaper and carries the Sagarin College Football Ratings. Ursinus is not a planet but a real liberal arts college in Pennsylvania.

A hypothetical victory margin is determined by comparing the rating of the two teams after adding 2.93 points to the home team. 143 after its opening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No. 5 by both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll going into the game. La Salle is a Catholic university located in Philadelphia.

3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated No. The Irish failed to score a touchdown for the first time ever in their home opener.

You will have to forgive the NCAA for taking titles that have been used for years and are perfectly clear, then renaming them and creating confusion in the process.

A diminishing-returns principle exists to prevent teams from building up ratings by running up large victory margins against weak teams. 242 La Salle Explorers. Both teams are among the 7 worst Division I-A teams in the country, joining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and Florida International.

The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

 by: Ed Bagley

For those who wager, it may be helpful to put some science on your side when you wager, and one of the best places to do that is with the Sagarin College Football Ratings.

Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical measure of a team’s strength.

5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia Tech, was rated No. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.

If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its superior power, it does so by making everything more difficult and confusing, similar to your United States government and its IRS tax code which could reduce a sane person to tears just reading it.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley

Following the first week of college football action, here are some facts that interested me about Sagarin’s first-week ratings:

Folks in the gaming business know that more than a billion dollars is wagered on every Monday Night Football game during the season. .

Only Division I (both A and AA) are counted for rating and schedule strength during the season.

While betting on sports is only legal in a few places in the United States, such as Las Vegas, millions of office workers are involved in sports pools every week now that the football season has arrived.

The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does not factor in scoring margin. 57 after the loss. 38 following its upset of mighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan’s home field. 145 after its opening loss) face off in week two. 36 after steamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home opener.

Michigan was ranked No. 2. 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and their play reflects their rating. Now you can better understand why La Salle College is ranked last among 242 Division I schools.

4) Wyoming, a small school and never among the nation’s top teams, was ranked No. The Explorers next job will be to actually win a game. The worst-rated A school is Florida International at No. The home edge will vary during the season.

Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT mathematics graduate, these computer ratings are for Division I-A (what the NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB) Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the NCAA now calls the Football Championship (FC) Subdivision) teams.

Ursinus College is not a Division 1 school (which includes the 242 teams with La Salle), not a Division II team (which includes another 157 teams), but a Division III team

Casino-Gaming :: Why People Like Casinos?

One, you can play online casino games and win money. As children, parents offer us different types of games to help us learn things like social skills and to keep us occupied. It is also about meeting people. They can learn about other cultures, other’s lives, and just have a great time. Players can feel like they do not have to think about their problems, their stresses, when they are playing a game. When we are adults we also get to enjoy the benefits of playing games for money. By playing five cents one could win a hundred dollars. If you are waiting for the bingo call to start you can be playing a slot machine to win a couple of dollars. Roulette is another option of online casino games. This lucky feeling draws gamblers in every day.

There seems to be an inherent sense that games are enjoyable. Enjoyment is always a key to playing online casinos.. You can change games whenever you want to. Craps, baccarat, Texas Hold’em and other games are always available online. Whether you are sitting in a land casino or at home visiting the virtual world of casinos online, there is always that excitement. Our first reason is the atmosphere of fun. The fact is there are many reasons why people like casinos. We have just listed a few.

Some of the gamblers will play online casino slots thinking that luck is on their side; that this once they will hit the button and win the million dollar jackpot. We are able to buy a lottery ticket, take a chance on the spinning of a wheel, or use strategy to earn free cash.

The online casino gambling also gives players a break from reality. Instead they focus on the wins, the strategy it takes to win, and the good times they are having. Many of us grow up still enjoying a game now and then. They are also thinking what they need to do to win. Gamblers can play someone in China while sitting in the UK. The online casino games vary from slot machines and arcade games to variations of table games. You do not just have to play one game.. The music that plays or the flashing lights of the online casino slots draw players in.

The four reasons we have listed above all center on two things. It is also about playing the best poker players in the world at the online tournaments.

It would be impossible to list every reason for why people like casinos, but we do have some of the top reasons that individuals find casinos and most importantly online casinos enjoyable. If someone is playing the online casino poker they are thinking about what they need to bet. If you have always wanted to try craps but could never afford the Vegas tables you can enter into a game online. It is about the free money. In the online casino world meeting people from all over the world is a possibility

How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Contributed by:

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

How the Opening Line Is Made

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game .

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

Why the Line Changes

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time

Gbgc Provide Industry Trends And Statistics Gaming

Industry Trends are the latest trends to make you eligible for online playing games.

Industry trends are the most up and coming trends to make you eligible for playing online games successfully. Nowadays, internet gambling is the most popular game activity played very well around the world. Today, internet gambling statistics have also predicted that Industry Trends are the latest trends that make you eligible for playing online games successfully. It also shows that more and more people love to play very well in virtual casino gambling, especially for those people, who have grown to love casino and video games.

. It is playing an important role for introducing online gambling with excellent features. Recently, global market is very competitive, so online gamblers should be kept you up to dated and informed about the changing trends of playing various kinds of games around the world. Today, computer technology is the most powerful form of entertainment and recreation and many more games. It is more competitive and professional game performed well by the online game players. The most important decision to gamble a certain amount of money is based on three factors namely; the predictability of the event, how much to bet and the conditions agreed upon between the gamblers. Statistics Gaming explains that it has been proved as the most powerful addictive activity to keep the online gamblers on moving path with various kinds of gambling activities of whether they can earn or lose in great deal.

Statistics gaming demonstrates that online casino is getting a lot of popularity across the world. Dice based games, card games and coin tossing games are the most popular non casino based forms of gambling:- sports betting and arbitrage betting are the most up-and-coming kinds of gambling. The proficiency of a gambler lies in performing the calculation between three parameters and making a brand decision about what amount should be kept on venture and how much to expect in the return.

Warwick Bartlett is experienced writer, who will tell you that Statistics Gaming is the most suitable way to play gambling games in the virtual casinos. It is very latest internet betting, which is getting a lot of popularity among youngsters from all walks of life, young people and older people.

Nowadays, games are offered in casinos, Red dog and blackjack, the table games like poker as also electronic games like Slot Machine and Video poker are the most common types of gambling.

Author’s Bio: 

Gambling is the most indispensable event to the betting of money on an event with an uncertain outcome with intention of winning extra money. These trends are extremely treasured by worldwide players. It is the loveliest activity for playing games very well

All Bets Are Off On ‘Survivor’

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

“Only ‘The X-Files’ has more conspiracy theories than ‘Survivor,'” CBS spokesman Chris Ender said. He declined further comment on the allegations, or on any action CBS might take.

“We’re pretty sure this is the case,” Bradley said. “Some have been right, many have been wrong.”

Callers to the Bodog.com offices were told that wagers were no longer being accepted on “Survivor.”

Odds will be offered on the seventh “Survivor” but all bettors will be carefully monitored, BoDog President Rob Gillespie said in a statement.

© 2003 The Associated Press. The players in question opened accounts with BoDog before “Survivor: Marquesas,” the fourth show, and bet only on the show and no other events.. Asked if BoDog might consider legal action, he replied: “It’s not something we’d want to pursue, as a matter of precedent.”

He wasn’t aware of any other possible legal sanctions.

An online sportsbook said it has dropped betting on CBS’ “Survivor” after allegedly finding that network employees were wagering – and winning – on the hit reality show.

The Costa Rica-based BoDog.com found at least two CBS employees betting on the show’s outcome, said BoDog spokesman Lance Bradley. The show narrows the field to two finalists in filmed competitions. One person was said by BoDog to work in a “production role” for CBS.

The players’ current bets on “Survivor: Amazon” have been canceled and their money refunded, Bradley said. The winner is unknown until he or she is chosen in a vote by other contestants during a live broadcast.

For the current “Survivor,” the bets in question affected the odds for contestants Jenna Morasca of Pittsburgh, Pa., and Matthew Von Ertfelda of Washington, D.C.

Betting on events other than sports or racing is banned in Las Vegas sportsbooks, a spokeswoman for the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Thursday. The suspicion is they had insider knowledge, he said.

By Lynn Elber

“Throughout the history of ‘Survivor,’ many have believed they knew the outcome of the show,” Ender said. All Rights Reserved. The biggest payoff, $8,000, came on a $1,000 bet placed on the fifth “Survivor” at 8-to-1 odds.

At least two players have been identified as CBS employees and other names may be connected to the network or may be aliases, Bradley said. Most offshore sportsbooks accept such alternative bets, said BoDog’s Bradley.

BoDog requires that bettors must not have knowledge of an event’s outcome. Bradley said that bets taken from those alleged to be with CBS skewed the odds significantly on “Survivor” contestants.

They wagered correctly on who would be the final two contestants in both the fourth and fifth editions of “Survivor,” Bradley said

12 Effective Tips to Get Rid of Gambling Addiction

Here are some useful tips regarding lifestyle changes to get rid of a gambling addiction.

. Study results show that a gambler who has not been treated for compulsive gambling during his desperation phase is likely to commit suicide. Addiction to gambling at a young age increases the risk of suicide. ‘Problem gambling’, also known as ‘ludo mania’, can destroy the life of the gambler and also of his/her family members. Despite being aware of the serious negative consequences, or despite having a strong desire to quit, he cannot stop himself from gambling. He lies to his family and friends, borrows money, and loses control over his mind and behavior. When a gambler with severe ludo mania meets certain criteria, the condition is diagnosed as ‘clinical pathological gambling’. To experience the same excitement, he needs larger wagers or more frequent gambling.

There are chances that he has other psychiatric problems at the same time; for example, substance use disorder, mood and anxiety disorder, personality disorder, etc. Researchers have noticed increased rates of mental health disorders in gamblers with severe ludo mania. Gambling addiction is referred to as ‘compulsive gambling’ or ‘impulse-control disorder’, where the behavior of the gambler is similar to that of a person who has substance addiction.

When an individual realizes that gambling is destroying his family and social life, he thinks of quitting, but in just a few hours or within a couple of days, he is again found in a gaming zone or casino. As he spends more gambling, he requires more money to recover his losses. He may lose his job and may commit crimes to get money for gambling. Analysis of casino customer data may help identify problem gamblers, but casino owners do not share this data for fear of losing their most lucrative customers (may be 25 – 50%). But studies show that suicide attempts are usually made by older people with problem gambling

“Arbitrage”: Critics rate Richard Gere’s new film

He ends up making a mistake that forces him to turn to an unlikely person for help.

Mary F. All Rights Reserved. The New York Post’s Klye Smith wrote, “And as for that so-called Oscar buzz for Mr.

The critics have chimed in on the new Nicholas Jarecki-directed film, with Rotten Tomatoes giving “Arbitrage” a very respectable 81 percent rating. But why grade on a curve? Every episode of ‘Law & Order’ I’ve ever seen has a more complicated and plausible plot, punchier dialogue and more New York authenticity, all in less than half the time consumed by this poky would-be finance thriller.”

Peter Debruge of Variety: “Between this cast and the conviction Jarecki brings to the table, the film feels incredibly accomplished for a first feature.”

AP Photo/Roadside Attractions

Roger Ebert of The Chicago Sun-Times: “Hitchcock called his most familiar subject ‘The Innocent Man Wrongly Accused.’ Jarecki pumps up the pressure here by giving us a Guilty Man Accurately Accused, and that’s what makes the film so ingeniously involving.”

Richard Gere in a scene from “Arbitrage.”

Pictures: Richard Gere

Watch: Gere and Sarandon discuss their new film, “Arbitrage”

Pictures: Fall Film Preview 2012

Peter Travers of Rolling Stone: “Richard Gere’s performance in the sinfully entertaining ‘Arbitrage’ is too good to ignore…he is at the peak of his powers.”

See what else critics are saying:

(CBS News) Richard Gere is back in the shoes of an investor powerhouse, portraying fictional New York hedge fund magnate Robert Miller in “Arbitrage,” which hits theaters today. Gere, allow me to apply a little buzzicidal ointment. Gere and Sarandon previously appeared together on the big screen in the 2004 romantic comedy “Shall We Dance.”

Christy Lemmire of The Associated Press: “Gere is so charming, so irresistible when he’s on top of the world – when he’s got all those plates humming in unison – that he kind of makes you root for his character to get away with it all.”

But not everyone agrees.

The 63-year-old “Pretty Woman” actor stars alongside Susan Sarandon and Tim Roth in the drama about a man desperate to complete the sale of his trading empire. Pols of TIME: “The main reason to see ‘Arbitrage’ is Gere, whose steady improvement with age (he just turned 63) is not remarked upon enough.”


. Gere is one of cinema’s great walkers, graced with a suggestively predatory physical suppleness, and he slips through the movie like a panther. Clint Eastwood’s chair has a better shot at an Oscar nomination.”

Kyle Smith of The New York Post gave it 2 out of 4 stars: “‘Arbitrage’ is a decent enough way to spend your time compared to, say, waiting on line at the grocery story.

Gere has attracted attention for his acting in the film, with Manohla Dargis of The New York Times noting, “Mr. He’s the film’s most deluxe item.”

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc

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Tipping Slot Attendants In Las Vegas

Good tips can encourage great customer service. Many people feel if they hit a jackpot, regardless of the size, they should tip the slot attendant because he or she was the one that paid out the jackpot.

In todays world the casino could just as easily have the machine spit out a ticket and then I could take it to the cashiers’ cage to redeem my earnings. As For Slot attendants, the only thing they can do is be rude too you. I also do not have to stumble with placing 2-3 quarters in her hand each time she brings me a new drink.

Others suggest that tipping the slot attendant is a waste of money and will never do it. A lot of their income is based on tips. The cocktail waitresses, the slot attendants, and all other casino personnel have no incentive to be friendly, prompt, and courteous to the casino patrons.

If I have to tip a slot attendant to keep him or her happy then I will simply spend my money elsewhere. Did the slot attendant pitch in on the money I put in the machine? No. The problem though, is that in order to survive the slot attendant needs to receive tips.

A slot attendant always needs to be polite and courteous to players regardless of whether they receive a tip or not. They point many customers to many different machines.

Their have been casinos in the past that have tried a no tipping policy.

It is a scam. These people feel that the only thing the slot attendant did is put a ticket in the machine and count out your cash.

If you feel that you have received excellent customer service in a casino and want to tip the person or people, then go right ahead. Casinos want players to keep playing after they win a jackpot, not pack up and move to a competitor’s casino.

If you win a jackpot and don’t tip the slot attendant, and then receive poor and rude service from the slot attendant, quit playing. Out of all of these customers, one may hit a jackpot. They can get you paid out faster, and they will let the cocktail waitresses know that you tip so your drinks will come more often without waiting.

Yes, You Should Always Tip the Slot Attendants

Slot Attendants generally work for minimum wage. It is very hard to survive in Las Vegas on minimum wage.

Tipping is very personal, at the restaurant if you are not a regular tipper but you always eat there, then be prepared to have mucus in your food. The customer then thinks they won because the slot attendant pointed them too the machine originally. I may have lost $700 before I won the jackpot. The slot attendants do not know any better then you do which gaming machines are the best too use. Every time those casino policies have failed. Did the slot attendant give me money last week when I lost money?

If this happens multiple times a casino will then either retrain the slot attendants in customer service skills or fire them.

Just because I won a $500 jackpot does not mean that I am ahead $500. On the same token, if you feel a customer does not receive a tip then do not tip them. Slot attendants do not deserve a tip and never have.. Explain to them how you won a mini-jackpot and was going to keep gambling here but instead you are taking your winnings to a different casino to play because you are tired of the slot attendant who is very rude too you, simply because you did not give her a tip.

The slot attendant will then stare at you, hoping for tip. Instead, the casino wants to verify that the win is authentic, and then have the slot attendant pay me my winnings.

The debate has raged on for years. I don’t think so.

Many people who like to tip say “well the slot attendant pointed out the good machines too use”. Cash out your machine and find a floor supervisor or manager. You should never feel forced to tip a slot attendant. That means I am still down $200, and the slot attendant wants a tip. It is all luck.

Further Thoughts on Slot Attendants

Whether you choose to tip the slot attendants or not is a very personal choice. Here are both sides to the story.

Tipping slot attendants is simply the right thing too do.

The debate on whether you should tip your slot attendant or not rages on. For what? The slot attendant did nothing but take 3 minutes of her time to pay me my earnings. Most of them will lose. If you go to the same casino to play on a regular basis, a repeat customer, then you should always tip the slot attendants. I tend to give a large tip too the cocktail waitress the first time I see her. Maybe in the old days, before all of this new computer generated tickets, I would consider tipping the slot attendant. You should decide for yourself whether you want to tip a slot attendant. They can point you out too machines that tend to pay off more often. Image Credit: (Flickr/sophistechate)

Become A Slot Tech In Las Vegas

All Day Long Buffets In Las Vegas

No, Don’t Ever Tip the Slot Attendants

I gamble my own money, I get lucky and win $500, and now I am suppose to tip the slot attendant who simply paid me the cash? It is a scam. Each night the slot attendants play a game of numbers.

As for the other casino staff such as cocktail waitresses and blackjack dealers, if you tip or not is up too you. If your slot attendant is rude, cash out, talk to a floor supervisor, and then move onto a new casino.

The casinos that have tried to the no tipping policy have paid higher than minimum wage to their workers, but it was still not enough.

Most slot attendants will tend to be courteous, even if you do no tip them. I then usually receive many drinks and get them without waiting. I call hors manure on that

Arbitrage betting

On the other hand, these changes also made it easier for bookmakers to keep their odds in line with the market, because arbitrage bettors are basically acting as market makers.

1.43-1+3.9-1=0.956displaystyle 1.43^-1+3.9^-1=0.956

Bookmaker 1

Bookmaker2

Outcome 1

1.25

1.43

Outcome 2

3.9

2.85

b2=B/(1+(o2/o1)+(o2/o3))displaystyle b_2=B/(1+(o_2/o_1)+(o_2/o_3))

b3=B/(1+(o3/o1)+(o3/o2))displaystyle b_3=B/(1+(o_3/o_1)+(o_3/o_2))

The amount required to bet on each possibility in order to ensure profit can be calculated by

In Britain, a practice has developed in which highly experienced “key men” employ others to place bets on their behalf, so as to avoid detection and increase accessibility to retail bookmakers and allow the financiers or key arbitragers to stay at a computer to keep track of market movement.

There are a number of potential arbitrage deals. While making deposits is usually made easy and quick, making withdrawals often requires proof of identity in the form of passport/driver license, copies of which need to be shared with the bookmakers via fax/email or even postal mail, which causes additional identity theft risks. Marshall The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 49 (2009) 917-930

Retrieved from “https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Arbitrage_betting&oldid=734162141″

Other potential problems include:

Risks

Arbitrage is an extremely fast-paced process and its successful performance requires lots of time, experience, dedication and discipline, and especially liquidity.

Placing a bet of $100 on outcome 1 with bookmaker 2 and a bet of $100*1.43/3.9=36.67displaystyle $100*1.43/3.9=36.67 on outcome 2 at bookmaker 1 would ensure the bettor a profit.

b1=B/(1+(o1/o2)+(o1/o3))displaystyle b_1=B/(1+(o_1/o_2)+(o_1/o_3))

For instance if one places a bet on outcome 1 at bookmaker 2 and outcome 2 at bookmaker 1:

Or in other words, if there are two outcomes, a 1/1 and a 2/1, by covering the 1/1 with $500 and the 2/1 with $333, one is guaranteed to win $1000 at a cost of $833, giving a 20% profit. Many bookmakers may now be using shared security servers in order to pinpoint people suspected of arbitrage betting; they can simply limit stakes to make arbing unprofitable and even close accounts without honoring a bet that was placed. Traders are often attracted to high odds comparison sites that yield high percentage profits per stake (5-30%); this is often used by hackers to lure a high number of arbitrage bettors that then place large sums of money on these arb’s, only to lose all of the profit and even entire savings in bank accounts to hackers or untrustworthy websites, which may further use the gathered data to sell personal data to criminals.

Making errors as an arber: In the excitement of the action and due to the high number of bets placed, it is not uncommon to make a mistake (like traders on financial markets). When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. If one wishes to place stake s1displaystyle s_1 at outcome 1, then one should place s2=s1*o1/o2displaystyle s_2=s_1*o_1/o_2 at outcome 2, to even out the odds, and receive the same return no matter the outcome of the event.

By signing up to various bookmakers, it is possible to turn these “free” bets into cash fairly quickly, and either making a small arbitrage, or in the majority of cases, making a small loss on each bet, or trade. In theory a trader could turn a small investment into large profits by re-investing his earlier profits into future bets so as to generate exponential growth. This effectively reduces the odds, in decimal format, by 1. a passport/ID copy). Arbitrage using only the back or lay side might occur on betting exchanges. all outcomes) of an event, whose implied probabilities add up to less than 1.[1] In the bettors’ slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers.

Bookmakers generally disapprove of betting arbitrage, and restrict or close the accounts of those who they suspect of engaging in arbitrage betting. For example, one could actually make more money by placing the “wrong” bet where the outcome happens to be beneficial, though not justified by the arbitrage calculation. This usually leads to unprofitable arbing as the most successful bookmakers are so adept at identifying arbitrage bettors.

Stake reviewal: Some bookmakers are known to accept only very small stakes by default, while requiring larger stakes to be manually reviewed before being accepted, which basically makes it difficult for an arbitrage better to determine if a leg was completely accepted or not, until it may be too late.

Bet cancellation: If a bettor places bets so as to make an arbitrage and one bookmaker cancels a bet, the bettor could find himself in a bad position because he is actually betting with all the risks implied. Scalping relies on liquidity in the markets and that the odds will fluctuate around a mean point. Journal of Prediction Markets. However, frequent punters may be subject to a discount of up to 60%, i.e. Retrieved 19 March 2014.

^ “How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?” Ben R. However, it is relatively time consuming to find close matched bets or arbitrages, which is where a middleman service is useful. For example, the appropriate stakes may be incorrectly calculated, or be placed on the wrong “legs” of the arb, locking in a loss, or there may be inadequate funds in one of the accounts to complete the arb. Arbitrage betting is almost always insufficiently profitable due to detection, unreliable betting websites, limiting of stakes, hackers, and scammers that use high percentage arbitrages to trick bettors into providing security credentials.

Many bookmakers offer first time users a signup bonus in the range $10-200 for depositing an initial amount. a minimum commission rate of 3%).

Smaller betting exchanges may not be able to deal with consistently winning punters.

See also

Advantage gambling

Dutch book

Mathematics of bookmaking

References

^ Cortis, Dominic (2015). For an example of an event with only two possible outcomes (e.g. This is made possible because online prices change quickly to close these positions and betting shops are slower to change the prices on their printed coupons.

Shop arbitrage (sharbing)

So for 2 odds o1displaystyle o_1 and o2displaystyle o_2, where o1-1+o2-1<1displaystyle o_1^-1+o_2^-1<1. In this way the bookmakers wagering demand can be met and the initial deposit and sign up bonus can be withdrawn with little loss.

Variable

Explanation

s1displaystyle s_1

Stake in outcome 1

s2displaystyle s_2

Stake in outcome 2

o1displaystyle o_1

Odds for outcome 1

o2displaystyle o_2

Odds for outcome 2

r1displaystyle r_1

Return if outcome 1 occurs

r2displaystyle r_2

Return if outcome 2 occurs

Using bookmakers

2 Risks

3 See also

4 References

The advantage over usual betting arbitrage is that it is a lot easier to find bets with an acceptable loss, instead of an actual profit. 9.

^ Keynes, Milton. Bookmaker 1 will in this example expect to earn 5.34% on bets on the tennis game. As many bookmakers require a certain turnover of the bonus amount, matching money from different bookmakers against each other enables the player to in effect quickly “play free” the money of the losing bookmaker and in effect transfer it to the winning bookmaker. Scalping is not actually arbitrage, but short term trading. One would have invested $136.67, but have collected $143, a profit of $6.33 (4.6%) no matter the outcome of the event.

For arbitrages involving three outcomes (e.g. a game which can be won, lost or drawn) having the odds o1displaystyle o_1 for Outcome 1, o2displaystyle o_2 for outcome 2 and o3displaystyle o_3 for outcome 3 with their respective bids being b1displaystyle b_1, b2displaystyle b_2 and b3displaystyle b_3 and sum of the bids being B.

Betting exchanges such as Smarkets have opened up a new range of arbitrage possibilities since on the exchanges it is possible to lay (i.e. Mathematically arbitrage occurs when there are a set of odds, which represent all mutually exclusive outcomes that cover all state space possibilities (i.e. Expected Values and variance in bookmaker payouts: A Theoretical Approach towards setting limits on odds. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit.

Reducing the risk of human error is vital being that the mathematical formula is sound and only external factors add “risk”. More often profits exists around the 4% mark or less.

For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event will always be greater than 1. Usually these gaps will be in the order 8 – 12%. It is in principle the same as the arbitrage using different bookmakers. However, repetition of this stroke of luck is unlikely, assuming the bookmaker has calculated the odds so they make a profit. In some sports different bookmakers deal with outcomes in different ways (they differ in their handling of – for example – player withdrawal due to injury in tennis, overtime in ice hockey), meaning that both “legs” can lose. Many jurisdictions allow bookmakers to cancel bets in the event of such a “palpable” [“obvious”] error in the quoted odds This is often loosely defined as an obvious mistake, but whether a “palp” in fact has been made is often the sole discretion of the bookmaker.

Back-lay sports

Shop arbitrage (also known as sharbing or shop-arbing) is the process of using a betting shop’s coupons and a betting exchange to create an arbitrage position. In some cases the situation arises when there are very high potential payouts by the bookmaker, perhaps due to an unintentional error made while quoting odds. Thus, the risk of seeing bets revoked is also often much higher for arbitrages found via such tools than for arbitrages found manually, that are not shared with other arbitrage bettors.

Arbing often involves making use of bookmaker bonuses which usually require substantial transactions before being eligible for withdrawal, thus reducing total liquidity.

Foreign currency movements can wipe out small percentage gains and can make quick calculation of stakes difficult.

Transferring funds between bookmakers and ewallets may create additional costs at some point; most bookmakers and/or ewallets limit deposits to certain amounts per month.

Withdrawals are often limited to a certain amount per month or to a certain number of free withdrawals per month

Withdrawals are often charged for, not just on the side of the bookmaker, but sometimes also on the ewallet side (transfer to the bettor’s bank account).

In some countries, additional costs are imposed by government taxes, so that the final profit is further reduced by a fixed percentage of say 5% (Germany/Europe).

Professional arbitrage betting may eat up considerable time and energy and requires lots of experience and liquidity, as well as sufficient funds to recover from inevitable losses that will happen sooner or later due to the aforementioned reasons.

Typically, arbitrages have a profit margin of only 2-5% – many other arbitrages are regarded as “high risk” (“palps”). However, the commission charged by the bookmakers and exchanges must be included into calculations.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers’ different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. Loss of deposited money into a bookmaker could occur. In case outcome 2 comes out, one could collect r2=$36.67*3.9=$143displaystyle r_2=$36.67*3.9=$143 from bookmaker 1. to bet against) as well as to back an outcome. In the long term, the benefit will depend on the odds. A key advantage to scalping on one exchange is that most exchanges charge commission only on the net winnings in a particular event, thus ensuring that even the smallest favorable difference in the odds will guarantee some profit.

While often claimed to be “risk-free”, this is only true if an arbitrage is successfully completed; in reality, there are several threats to this:

This type of arbitrage takes advantage of different odds offered by different bookmakers. High street bookmakers however, offer their odds days in advance and rarely change them once they have been set. The bettor can repeat the bet that has been cancelled so as minimize the risk, but if he cannot get the same odds he had before he may be forced to take a loss. Arbitrage using back and lay side is possible if a lay bet on one exchange provides shorter odds than a back bet on another exchange or bookmaker. Therefore, in order to reduce “losses” on the free bet, it is necessary to place a bet with high odds, so that the percentage difference of the decrease in odds is minimised.

Bonus sports

Disappearance of arbitrage: Arbitrages in online sports markets have a median lifetime of around 15 minutes,[3] after which the difference in odds underpinning them vanishes through betting activity. 1.25-1+3.9-1=1.056displaystyle 1.25^-1+3.9^-1=1.056 and 1.43-1+2.85-1=1.051displaystyle 1.43^-1+2.85^-1=1.051

1 Theory

1.1 Using bookmakers

1.2 Back-lay sports

1.3 Bonus sports

1.4 Shop arbitrage (sharbing)

The bookmaker’s return rate is 1-(1.25*3.9)/(1.25+3.9)=5.34%displaystyle 1-(1.25*3.9)/(1.25+3.9)=5.34%, which is the amount the bookmaker earns on offering bets at some event. Numerous online arbitrage calculator tools exist to help bettors get the math right. In the context of sports arbitrage betting a scalping trader or scalper looks to make lots of small profits, which in time can add up. “Reward without Risk? An Introduction to Arbitrage Betting and the Asian Handicap”. Below is an explanation of some of them including formulas and risks associated with them. The idea is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of all the outcomes are below 1, meaning that the bookmakers disagree on the chances of the outcomes. Bonus sport arbitraging is a form of sports arbitraging where the bettor hedges or backs their bets as usual, but since they received the bonus, a small loss can be allowed on each wager (2-5%), which comes off their profit. Although arbitrage betting has existed since the beginnings of bookmaking, the rise of the Internet, odds-comparison websites and betting exchanges have made the practice easier to perform. Since most bookmakers offer these bonuses this can potentially be exploited to harvest the sign up bonuses.

As well as spending time physically matching odds from various bet sites to exchanges, the other draw back with bonus bagging and arbitrage trading in this sense is that often the free bets are “non-stake returned”. Websites and bet placement interfaces differ between bookmakers, so that arbitrage bettors need to be familiar with different web interfaces.

Contents

Arbitrage betting involves relatively large sums of money for 98% of arbitrage opportunities return less than 1.2%.[2] The practice is usually detected quickly by bookmakers, who typically hold an unfavorable view of it, and this can result in half of an arbitrage bet being canceled. By avoiding most of the turnover requirements in this way the player can usually expect a 70-80% return on investment.

Back-lay sports arbitrage is often called “scalping” or “trading”. The table below introduces a number of variables that will be used to formalise the arbitrage models.

Arbers’ dedicated email addresses are subject to advertising campaigns from third parties which suggests that client data may be resold behind the scenes.

Bookmakers who encourage responsible gambling will close accounts where they see only large losses, unaware that the arbitrage trader has made wins at other books.

Capital diffusion is serious; many bookmakers make it very easy to deposit funds and difficult to withdraw them (requiring lots of additional information, and documents as proof of identity, i.e. Matching terms for all bookmakers is time consuming, requires lots of expertise and experience, while still being fairly error-prone.

Detection: There are very few bookmakers who openly tolerate arbing. a tennis match – either Federer wins or Henman wins), the two bookmakers have different ideas of who has the best chances of winning. 1. Making a return involves many bets spread over typically many bookmakers and keeping track requires good record-keeping and discipline.

Responding to an available arb may require transfer of funds from one bookmaker to another, through one or more ewallet accounts with each withdrawal requiring special approval.

While there are commercial software products and web services available to help with some of these tasks, they are complicated and may involve significant initial investments and monthly subscription fees.

Arbitrage bettors using software tools or web services to find arbitrages will often make an existing arbitrage even more prominent and obvious to the bookmaker because of the number of arbitrage bettors placing bets on the same outcome, so that the lifetime of an arbitrage found via such tools is often even much shorter than the average 15 minutes. They offer the following Fixed-odds gambling on the outcomes of the event:

In case outcome 1 comes out, one could collect r1=$100*1.43=$143displaystyle r_1=$100*1.43=$143 from bookmaker 2. For example, arbitrage calculators can handle calculations for both book arbitrage (“back/back” or “lay/lay”) and “back/lay” arbitrage opportunities on an intra-exchange or inter-exchange basis, and is free.

Theory. Without rapid alerting and action, it is possible to fail to make all the “legs” of the arbitrage before it vanishes, thus transforming it from a risk-free arbitrage into a conventional bet with the usual risks involved. They typically demand that this amount is wagered a number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn. TBR. Those errors might temporarily have an important impact. These arbitrages can have a lifetime of several hours.

Hackers: Due to the large number of accounts that have to be created and managed (containing personal details such as email, name, address, ewallet, credit card information and often even a copy of the bettor’s ID/passport or driver’s license), arbitrage traders are highly susceptible to cyber fraud, such as bank account theft. Accordingly, profits accumulated through 20-40 successful arbitrages can be lost on a single failed bet.

Won arbitrages realized via betting exchanges are typically subject to a commission fee of about 4-5%